Unless you live in Cleveland, every NFL city is optimistic about the 2016 NFL season (the Browns haven’t won a title since 1964). It’s only one week into training camp and fans are already pumped up. Not surprisingly, football is the most viewed sport in America. One of the reasons why is because it allows small market teams like Green Bay, Kansas City and Tennessee to compete for a championship every year.
Over the past 2 seasons, I have predicted 13 out of 16 division winners. This week, I’m taking a look at the AFC East. The AFC East has been dominated by the Patriots for over a decade; New England has won the Division 11 out of the last 12 years. With a new regular season on the horizon, here are my thoughts for how this year will shake out:
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New England (Projected record 12-4): Tom Brady will be suspended for the first four games of the season. That means Jimmy Garoppolo, the 64th pick of the 2014 NFL Draft, will lead the team as quarterback. Garoppolo has a tremendous football IQ and the quickest release of any quarterback I’ve seen since former Dolphin great Dan Marino. Head coach Bill Belichick has been down this road before; in 2008, Brady suffered an injury and was out for the season. Even with an average quarterback like Matt Cassell, the Pats went 11-5. When Brady comes back in October, the Patriots might be unbeatable; since 2000, their home record is 28-4, and they also have the NFL’s best record, 48-16, in October.
New York Jets (Projected record 10-6): The Jets finished 10-6 last year but they didn’t make the playoffs. Their reward for having a good year? A brutal schedule. The Jets play the Bengals, Bills, Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers and Cardinals in their first 6 games. Five of those teams made the playoffs last year and the Bills, who didn’t make the post-season, beat the Jets twice in 2015. I still think the Jets will improve on offense and defense from what they did just a year ago, though. Head Coach Todd Bowles won’t let the Jets beat themselves. They should be in the top 10 in both offense and defense, as well as one of the least penalized teams in the league.
Buffalo Bills (Projected record 7-9): During the Bills OTA’s, Head Coach Rex Ryan said, “The Bills won the off-season.” Ryan has to say that because he hasn’t made the playoffs for 5 straight years. The Bills had one of the most talented rosters on both sides of the ball last season, but they greatly underachieved. Teams have adjusted to Ryan’s blitz packages, and hiring his brother Rob to work on the defensive side won’t help. Rob had been fired by Cleveland, Dallas and New Orleans before joining the Bills’ staff. Ryan’s teams are always undisciplined and prone to taking bad penalties at the most inopportune times.
Miami Dolphins (Projected record 6-10): The Dolphins are in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Adam Gase. They have neither an elite defense nor elite offense. To make matters worse, they have the 11th toughest schedule in the NFL. That usually doesn’t bode well for a rookie head coach.
Barring serious injuries, I like the Pats to win the Division again and the Jets to be in the Wildcard hunt right until the last game of the season.
For more from Monte Perez, follow The Sports Whisperer on Twitter @Montetjwitter11, and listen to the Monte Cristo Sports Thing on WRNJ Radio.
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